Reliability predictions for high density packaging

Predicting the reliability of newly designed products, before manufacture, is obviously highly desirable for many organisations. Understanding the impact of various design variables on reliability allows companies to optimise expenditure and release a package in minimum time. Reliability predictions originated in the early years of the electronics industry. These predictions were based on historical field data which has evolved into industrial databases and specifications such as the famous MIL-HDBK-217 standard, plus numerous others. Unfortunately the accuracy of such techniques is highly questionable especially for newly designed packages. This paper discusses the use of modelling to predict the reliability of high density flip-chip and BGA components. A number of design parameters are investigated at the assembly stage, during testing, and in-service.