Prediction of typhoon triggered sea hazards in China

With global warming and sea level rising, the frequency and intensity of typhoon triggered sea hazards such as storm surges, waves, wind and currents, especially the combined effects of such extreme events have been increasing and have led to significant losses of life and properties. The traditional method cannot determine the design return level for extraordinary sea hazards. This paper introduces the new model Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD) and its applications for prediction of univariate extreme sea hazards, and the Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) model to predict the joint return level of simultaneous occurrence of multivariate typhoon triggered sea hazards. Based on the MCEVD, a Double Layer Nested Multiobjective Probability Model (DLNMPM) is proposed for sea hazards zoning and prevention criteria.