Development of risk based dynamic path finding framework using Bayesian Belief Network

Due to the rapid changes in circumstances of cooperates such as globalization, technical innovation and competition, inter-dependence among cooperates which compose supply chain has been intensified. This make cooperates be exposed to various risk and even a small uncertainty can disrupt the balance of whole supply chain. Therefore, in this paper, the framework to develop alternative execution plan to minimize the total transportation cost and expected cost from risk has been devised. In order to model the relationship between risk factors and risk propagation effect, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been applied. Moreover, with the simple and fast heuristic algorithm, Dijkstra, the alternative transportation plan can be found. The result of numerical experiment shows the cost effectiveness of the proposed framework.