A fuzzy Markov model including optimization techniques to reduce uncertainty

Author

Duque, O. ; Morinigo, D.

Author_Institution

Dept. de Ingenieria Electrica, Valladolid Univ., Spain

Volume

3

fYear

2004

Firstpage

841

Abstract

This paper presents a method for the reliability evaluation of electric network components considering fuzzy quantities to include uncertainty in the data. A model is used based in Markov homogeneous processes of discrete state space and continuous parameter to take into account external influences such as weather conditions. This model provides expressions that are not suitable for fuzzy numbers since it would result in much more uncertainty than necessary. To avoid this problem, an optimization technique is used to reduce uncertainty in reliability results.

Keywords

Markov processes; fuzzy systems; meteorology; optimisation; power distribution reliability; state-space methods; Markov homogeneous processes; discrete state space; electric network components; fuzzy Markov model; optimization techniques; reliability evaluation; uncertainty reduction; weather condition; Atmospheric modeling; Equations; Failure analysis; Fuzzy systems; Power system management; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power system reliability; State-space methods; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Electrotechnical Conference, 2004. MELECON 2004. Proceedings of the 12th IEEE Mediterranean

Print_ISBN

0-7803-8271-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/MELCON.2004.1348077

Filename

1348077