Reliability and economic assessment of generating systems containing hydro energy resources

An efficient technique to simulate the operation of hydro power plants with random energy is presented. It is noted that the reliability and economic assessment of such sources cannot be made using standard capacity-replacement-based methods; instead, energy-replacement methods are required. The author extends probabilistic production simulation to include hydro sources in the evaluation of generation reliability. These results are then used to determine the operation policy of such sources. The proposed technique was applied in the Egyptian Unified Generation System, which requires special consideration because of irrigation and navigation constraints. The hydro operating policy of both base and peak shaving generation was found to enhance the reliability of the generation system and to reduce the production cost