Model analysis on the efficiency of promotion — Based the Gerneranize Linear Model

Promotion plays an important part in common market economic activities. How to analyze the efficiency of a promotion? Because the effects of promotions always have hysteresis, using the final results of one promotion to analyze the effects lacks significance; also, it is difficult to analyze the correlations between promotion results and promotion methods. So, utilizing existed data to do statistic analysis and determine the efficiency of future promotions becomes essential and available. In this article, we use Generalized Linear Models to analyze data, get the prediction results and propose ROC, AUC statistics to test the model. Finally, we use the Cumulative Proportional Odds Model to categorize the different customers, and assess customer´s response probability of buying goods. These analyses can provide data support to the promotion plans.