Simulating Urban Growth in Nakuru (Kenya) Using Java-Based Modelling Platform XULU

The exponential increase of urban areas in Africa during the last decade has become a major concern in the context of global climatic change and the increasing amount of impervious surface. Land-use models can assist decision makers in analyzing the underlying processes and estimate the impact of remedy actions. We used multi-temporal Land sat imageries for 1986, 2000 and 2010 to map urban land-use in Nakuru, Kenya. Based on this research we present the spatially explicit simulation of land-use change carried out with a cellular automata model called Urban Growth Model (UGM). The model is a modification of the SLEUTH modeling approach. UGM was integrated in the user friendly modeling frame-work XULU (extendable Unified Land Use Modelling Platform) that takes over the most important functions concerning model control and visualization. Accordingly, it offers the user the possibility to instantly compare model results or even let independent models interact. UGM was calibrated for Nakuru and simulation done under four approaches up to the year 2030 under when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. The outcome shows that Nakuru has experienced rapid urban sprawl. Furthermore, the results obtained indicate the possibility of urban growth modeling and approaches in addressing regional planning issues.