Dynamic asset allocation for counter-smuggling operations under disconnected, intermittent and low-bandwidth environment

Counter-smuggling operations constitute a high priority national security mission since drug-trafficking not only involves many criminals, but can also be a source of financing for many illicit activities such as narco-terrorism and arms trafficking. The counter-smuggling mission involves surveillance operations (to search, detect, track and identify potential threats) and interdiction operations (to intercept, investigate and potentially apprehend suspects). Potential smuggling activity is represented in the form of color-coded heat maps built using intelligence and meteorological and oceanographic information, which are interpreted in the form of probability of activity (PoA) surfaces. The PoA surfaces constitute the “sufficient statistics” for the asset allocation and scheduling processes. However, in the case of disconnected, intermittent, and low-bandwidth environments, the problem of allocating resources becomes very challenging as PoA information is unavailable or is not up to date. In this paper, we propose to utilize flow (historic PoA)-based surfaces, which provide cues on where the smugglers may have traversed in the past. Using the flow surfaces, we allocate the surveillance and interdiction assets to best thwart potential smuggling activities. We further evaluate the quality of our solution in terms of the number of targets interdicted and the amount of contraband seized.