The probability distribution calculation of Wind Power Penetration

WPP(Wind Power Penetration) is an important indicator to ensure wind power system security. It is with great practical significance for knowing probability distribution of WPP. There were two types of method to calculate probability distribution of WPP in the past. One type of method which used statistic theory to calculate were fast but had to know simple function relationship between WPP and load. Another type of method which used stochastic simulation to calculate could be fit for complex relationship between WPP and load but were very slow. To solve the problem, a flexibility method is given in the paper. Firstly, a piecewise linear function is given to express the relationship of WPP and load, and then a formula of calculating probability density of WPP is derived by applying the probability theory. The given method for calculating probability distribution of WPP is not only clear, simple, but also fast in speed. It is an ideal method. A practical calculation example shows that the method of this paper is effective and significance.