Hydrological alteration and attribution analysis on the river of Wulijimuren

Because of the impacts of human activities and climate change, there are some alterations happened in the hydrological series in the scale of statistics. However, the qualitative analysis of factors that induce the alteration is not enough any longer. When we study on the factors in the view of quantitative analysis, the basic hydrological series have to be conformed firstly. Compared the hydrological series that changed with unchanged; we could get the quantitative results of human activities and climate change by the different ways of calculating. Because of the Hydrological Alteration Diagnosis System(HADS) is more comprehensive and systematic when it compared with the other diagnosis methods before, the HADS is used to detect the basic hydrological series and the style of alteration in this study. Considering the briefness of the model construction and the data we have, the rainfall-runoff model is used to analyze the attributions. Basic on the style of alteration, the corresponding ways of rainfall-runoff attribution analysis are discussed. With the hydrological data of Wulijimuren river from the year of 1956 to 2000, the method that put forward in this study is used to calculate, and the results show that: the hydrological alteration occurred in 1984, by the results of corresponding attribution analysis, in the factors that induced the hydrological alteration, human activities account for 97%, the climate change only accounts for 3%. By the physical causes analysis at last, the result also support the conclusion we got above.