Title :
Economic risk analysis about the before and after heightening of Danjiangkou Dam with the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME)
Author :
Li Jiqing ; Xi Ruichao ; Zhang Yushan
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Renewable Energy, North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
Economic risk of project is the largest and most important risk. Along with carrying the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project into execution, how much water to transfer is a controversial problem. Synthetically considering the risk characteristic of the hydraulic engineering benefit for flood control, electricity generation, water supply, irrigation efficiency and annual cost, a model of economic risk analysis is established with the Principle Of Maximum Entropy (POME). It presents comprehensively contrastive analysis on the economic risk about 3 schemes (water transfer of 8.2 × 109 m3, 15 × 109 m3, 22 × 109 m3 respectively) for Middle Route of South-North Water Diversion Project, which will provide some references for the ascertaining of water-transfer volume and determining the base for more detailed risk analysis.
Keywords :
dams; floods; hydraulic systems; maximum entropy methods; risk analysis; water resources; Danjiangkou dam; economic risk analysis; electricity generation; flood control; hydraulic engineering; principle of maximum entropy; south-north water diversion project; south-to-north water diversion project; water supply; Analytical models; Economics; Entropy; Indexes; Mathematical model; Risk analysis; Water resources; economic risk; principle of maximum entropy (POME); risk analysis model;
Conference_Titel :
Water Resource and Environmental Protection (ISWREP), 2011 International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Xi´an
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-339-1
DOI :
10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893374
