Economic risk analysis about the before and after heightening of Danjiangkou Dam with the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME)

Economic risk of project is the largest and most important risk. Along with carrying the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project into execution, how much water to transfer is a controversial problem. Synthetically considering the risk characteristic of the hydraulic engineering benefit for flood control, electricity generation, water supply, irrigation efficiency and annual cost, a model of economic risk analysis is established with the Principle Of Maximum Entropy (POME). It presents comprehensively contrastive analysis on the economic risk about 3 schemes (water transfer of 8.2 × 10⁹ m³, 15 × 10⁹ m³, 22 × 10⁹ m³ respectively) for Middle Route of South-North Water Diversion Project, which will provide some references for the ascertaining of water-transfer volume and determining the base for more detailed risk analysis.