Title :
The application of time series analysis in precipitation forecast in Wuyuan County
Author :
Leilei, Yang ; Wenxi, Lu
Author_Institution :
Key Lab. of Groundwater Resources & Environ., Jilin Univ., Changchun, China
Abstract :
Based on time series analysis, through analyzing and processing the variation of monthly precipitation volume from 1999 to 2008 of Wuyuan County, Inner Mongolia, the next 5 years´ monthly precipitation volume was forecast. Using time series analysis to extract periodic and stochastic items, finally the prediction model was obtained, if the accuracy meet the requirements, it can be used for the forecast. The results showed that Wuyuan county´s monthly precipitation series mainly had two cycles, one for 7 years, reflecting the inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall, another cycle length is 1 year, reflecting the uneven characteristics of precipitation during the year.
Keywords :
hydrological techniques; rain; time series; AD 1999 to 2008; China; Inner Mongolia; Wuyuan county; interannual rainfall fluctuations; monthly precipitation volume variation; precipitation forecast; prediction model; time series analysis; WuYuan County; forecast; precipitation; time series;
Conference_Titel :
Water Resource and Environmental Protection (ISWREP), 2011 International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Xi´an
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-339-1
DOI :
10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893525
