Title :
Variability of Predictability of the Daily Peak Load Using Lyapunov Exponent Approach : Case of Tunisian Power System
Author :
Mohamed, Ould Mohamed M ; Jaïdane-Saïdane, M. ; Ezzine, J. ; Souissi, J. ; Hizaoui, N.
Author_Institution :
Signals & Syst. Res. Unit, Ecole Nat. d´´Ing. de Tunis (ENIT), Tunis
Abstract :
This study addresses the problem of the expected variability of predictability of the load curves in the Tunisian Company of Electricity and Gas (STEG). For this purpose, the maximum prediction horizon of the daily peak load time series was investigated using the largest Lyapunov exponent estimation. The results may explain the recent observed degradation of forecast accuracy due to the increase in air conditioning load.
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; power systems; time series; Lyapunov exponent estimation; Tunisian power system; air conditioning load; daily peak load time series; load curves; maximum prediction horizon; predictability variability; Air conditioning; Degradation; Histograms; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Low voltage; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power systems; Predictive models; Lyapunov exponent; air conditioning; load forecasting; power system planning; predictability analysis;
Conference_Titel :
Power Tech, 2007 IEEE Lausanne
Conference_Location :
Lausanne
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2189-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2190-9
DOI :
10.1109/PCT.2007.4538465
