Probabilistic analysis of dispersed generation and smart grid technologies on electric power distribution networks

In this paper, we present a short description of the planned development of renewable generation in the Slovenian electric power system, and present a method to assess the impact of large-scale renewable generation by taking into account different smart grid technologies. As deterministic methods cannot take into account the uncertainties inherent for renewable generation, we propose a probabilistic power flow method for the assessment of uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation. A general overview of renewable generation uncertainty is presented, and the proposed method is tested on an actual Slovenian electric power distribution system. Here, two smart grid approaches are used - smart energy storage and topology switching in order to improve power system operation. The results of the proposed approach define the probability distribution of power flows and voltages, which may help the operator to take the uncertainties of renewable sources into account during daily operation, or during long-term system planning.