Title :
Effects of the seasonal sunlight variation on predictions of the solar-aeolic potential for power generation
Author :
Marafiga, Eduardo B. ; Farret, Felix A. ; Peixoto, Nirvan H.
Author_Institution :
Fed. Univ. of Santa Maria, Rio Grande, Brazil
Abstract :
This study discusses the yearly seasonal influence on sunlight time series to predict oscillations of the solar potential for generation of electricity and thermal energy along with its implications on climate changes. It is confirmed that there has been a decrease of 1% in the average variation of insolation from 1961 to 2011 and a trend of lower rates in all seasons. Both the predicted and measured data have demonstrated the possibility of a reduced insolation or sustained lower levels in the coming quarters in most months, with likely direct consequences on climate change and, in those forms of power generation dependent on the climatic stability.
Keywords :
electric power generation; solar power stations; sunlight; time series; climate changes; climatic stability; electricity generation; oscillation prediction; power generation; reduced insolation; seasonal sunlight variation; solar-aeolic potential; sunlight time series; sustained lower levels; thermal energy; yearly seasonal influence; Electric potential; Forecasting; Market research; Meteorology; Power generation; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Box-Jenkins Models; Seasonality; X11-ARIMA; forecasting; time series;
Conference_Titel :
European Energy Market (EEM), 2015 12th International Conference on the
Conference_Location :
Lisbon
DOI :
10.1109/EEM.2015.7216615