Forecasting price spikes in European day-ahead electricity markets using decision trees

Author

Fragkioudaki, Anna ; Marinakis, Adamantios ; Cherkaoui, Rachid

Author_Institution

Univ. of Seville, Seville, Spain

fYear

2015

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

Although the techniques for normal price prediction are well advanced, price spike prediction remains a challenge. The aim of this paper is to present a method to predict both normal day-ahead electricity prices as well as day-ahead price spikes using classification and regression trees. The models are build using historical data of European electricity market and transmission system variables. The proposed method is tested on several bidding zones of Europe.

Keywords

decision trees; economic forecasting; pattern classification; power markets; regression analysis; tendering; European bidding zone; European day-ahead electricity market; European electricity market; European transmission system; classification tree; decision tree; normal price prediction technique; price spike forecasting; price spike prediction; regression tree; Electricity supply industry; Europe; Forecasting; Power systems; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Training; Day-ahead electricity markets; decision trees; feature selection; price forecasting; price spikes;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

European Energy Market (EEM), 2015 12th International Conference on the

Conference_Location

Lisbon

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/EEM.2015.7216672

Filename

7216672