Incorporation of rationing effects to hydrothermal dispatch optimization

In Brazil, power supply safety criteria is established by the sector regulation, the power supply insufficiency risk must not exceed 5% limit. Thus, the tools that enable agents to model the rationing more accurately became necessary, estimating the impact caused by such kind of event and the future consequences. The official model used by Brazilian electric sector to carry out the expansion planning and medium/long-term operation is based on stochastic dual dynamic programming technique (SDDP). The main results that this model presents are the monthly evolution projection of short run marginal cost (SRMC) and hydrothermal dispatch, considering various hydrological scenarios. However, such model does not contain the representation of conjuncture changes occurred during a rationing, such as, for example, demand retraction and thermal dispatch out of merit order. This paper presents a new alternative to estimate rationing effects on power operation planning.