Probabilistic study of the maximum penetration rate of renewable energy in an island network

This paper addresses the determination of the maximum penetration rate of renewable energy sources (RES) in island power systems. This issue is analyzed through a probabilistic approach which gives an interesting set of results giving to system operators the possibility to faces challenges brought up by massive RES connections. RES, especially wind farms and photovoltaic solar plants may affect significantly power systems in terms of power flows (risk of congestions), voltage level, stability or reserves. For the purpose of this study, a probabilistic model of the power system has been developed. The mathematical model mixes the probabilistic characterization of the power system with a probabilistic RES production model to estimate defined reliability criteria. Practical application on a typical French island network is presented and contributions of the probabilistic methods are discussed, compared to the deterministic approach. The maximum penetration rate obtained with the last one is 13% instead of 30% with the probabilistic approach. The large quantity of results obtained with the probabilistic approach allows further analysis such as the influence of RES on the dispatching and the impact of the sudden RES generation loss.