The influencing factors analysis of Chinese carbon emissions based on the co-integration analysis with the help of grey correlation analysis(GRA)

In order to accomplish the carbon emissions reduction plan, the influencing factors of carbon emissions should be studied in priority. In this paper, grey relational analysis method is employed and several factors are chosen, such as energy consumption, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, foreign trade dependence, which have more grey relational degree with Chinese carbon emissions. With the cointegration analysis method, the cointegration relation of these four variables is studied and the long-term cointegration equation as well as the short-term error correction model of Chinese carbon emissions are established. The comparison between the forecast value and the actual value of Chinese carbon emissions is obtained based on Error correction model and various statistics tests show that the established model has better explaining capability and credibility.