Title :
The forecast of cultivate land quantity based on Grey-Markov model: A case study of Jiangsu province
Author :
Huan Hong-yan ; Tan Qing-mei
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
The change of cultivated land resources concerns national food security and sustainable development of economy and society. So that, it is significant to choose a scientific and reasonable prediction. But, the methods´ alteration towards the arable land survey causes the system uncertainty. This paper employed the Gray-Markov Chain Model for the scale prediction of cultivated land and took an empirical research with a case of Jiangsu province. The results show that the Gray-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with GM (1,1), which is a reliable guarantee for the change of cultivated land resources.
Keywords :
Markov processes; forecasting theory; grey systems; land use planning; sustainable development; Jiangsu province; arable land survey; cultivate land quantity; cultivated land resources; economy; gray-Markov chain model; grey-Markov model; national food security; reasonable prediction; society; sustainable development; system uncertainty; Accuracy; Markov processes; Reliability; GM(1,1) model; Grey-Markov model; cultivated land resources; forecast;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS), 2011 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-490-9
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044002
