Title :
On the Prediction Accuracy of Prediction Markets: Would the Spatial Distribution of Information Matter?
Author :
Bin-Tzong Chie ; Shu-Heng Chen
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. Econ., Tamkang Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
Abstract :
In this model, an agent-based political futures market is built upon the Schelling segregation model, in which the heterogeneity in ethnicity is replaced by political identity. A two-parameter segregation model is proposed as a first step to explore the effect of information distribution on accuracy of the prediction market.
Keywords :
commodity trading; multi-agent systems; politics; Schelling segregation model; agent-based political future market; ethnicity; political identity; prediction accuracy; prediction markets; spatial information distribution; two-parameter segregation model; Accuracy; Communities; Nominations and elections; Predictive models; Social network services; Sociology; Statistics; Schelling´s segregation model; agent-based models; prediction markets; von Neumann neighborhood; zero-intelligence agents;
Conference_Titel :
Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence (TAAI), 2013 Conference on
Conference_Location :
Taipei
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-2528-5
DOI :
10.1109/TAAI.2013.79
