Neural fuzzy system for default forecasts

A novel Neural Network Based Fuzzy Inference System for financial default forecast will be introduced. A wide range of financial forecasts is known. This method is focusing on the economical default forecast, but the method can be used generally for other financial forecasts as well, for example for calculating the Value at Risk. This hybrid method is combined by two classical methods: the artificial neural networks and fuzzy systems. In this article the structure of the hybrid method will be shown, the problems which occurred during the construction of the model and the solutions for the problems. The results of the model will be detailed and compared with the results of another financial default forecast model. The results and the reliability of the method will be analysed and it will be shown how the parameters can influence the reliability of the results.