Title :
Prediction of urban land price based on Grey-Markov model
Author :
Wang, Zhenyu ; Fu, Meichen ; Yu, Yuelong ; Zhao, Jizhou
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Land Sci. & Technol., China Univ. of Geosci. (Beijing), Beijing, China
Abstract :
Urban land price is a significant index of the social-economic development. It´s very important to establish scientific and appropriate mathematic prediction model to forecast its change trend. The methods of Conventional prediction including trend line, Grey model and so on. For the systems with apparent fluctuation, such as the land price prediction, the precision of prediction is lower. However, Markov model could solve the problem of randomness and great changed data which is based on the stability ineffectiveness theory. So, we combine the two models and build the Grey-Markov prediction model to forecast the urban land price of Tangshan city. The conclusion reveals that the new model has higher accuracy in prediction of urban land price. But there is also some limitation in different conditions and it should be improved by more research.
Keywords :
Markov processes; grey systems; land use planning; mathematical analysis; pricing; Grey-Markov prediction model; Tangshan city; apparent fluctuation; mathematic prediction model; social-economic development; stability ineffectiveness theory; trend line; urban land price prediction; Accuracy; Biological system modeling; Cities and towns; Data models; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Grey-Markov model; Tangshan; prediction; urban land price;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Science and Network Technology (ICCSNT), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Harbin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-1586-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICCSNT.2011.6182064