Application of improved grey GM(1,1) model in tourism revenues prediction

The GM(1,1) model is the kernel of grey system which can point at the small sample data and uncertain information to predict, and is applied widely in prediction. However, the general grey model is disturbed by old information, which is inadequate to predict accurately. So it is necessary to replace old information with new information. An improved grey model is proposed in this paper, which can realize by amending exponent of the GM(1,1) model. Finally, the improved model and general method were respectively applied to predict Jingdezhen´s tourism revenues from 2003 to 2010. The result shows that the improved model can improve prediction precision and obtain a much better prediction result.