Data Analysis, Discharge Classifications, and Predictions of Hydrological Parameters for the Management of Rawal Dam in Pakistan

Rawal Dam is a strategic asset for the twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi in Pakistan being the main source of drinking as well as agricultural water supplies. The low-lying areas of the reservoir are being affected by reservoir storage and spillways´ discharge. For the effective management, modeling techniques would not only be cost effective but also help the water managers in predicting the future scenarios of water discharge. In this paper, last twelve years (2001-2012) trends of hydrological parameters, attribute selection, discharge classification in terms of spillway gates opening, and prediction methods for the forecasting of hydrological parameters at the Rawal Dam is presented. Our research suggests that August is a crucial month for inflow and spillways discharge. Similarly, September and October are critical for level and total storage capacity which are critical parameters for discharge management. J48 tree classification technique gave better results for discharge management. Finally, in order to forecast the critical parameters, the improved SVM technique for water level and the regression technique for storage capacity has been found to be more accurate.