Probabilistic modeling of short term fluctuations of photovoltaic power injection for the evaluation of overvoltage risk in low voltage grids

Dispersed photovoltaic generation integrated in the low voltage distribution grids leads their operation towards an active approach. In that context, new methodologies are needed in order to identify and to accurately quantify the impact of this massive renewable penetration on the grid operation. For this purpose, the authors of this study have developed in a previous analysis a probabilistic load flow tool directly based on the use of smart meters data. The goal of this tool was to quantify probabilities of overvoltage in radial low voltage grids with increased photovoltaic penetrations. However, the drawback of this approach was the too long (15 minutes) sampling time step of smart meters that did not allow the consideration of fast fluctuations of photovoltaic generation. In the present paper, an original adaptation of the existing tool is therefore presented, which enables the consideration of short temporary photovoltaic power fluctuations. Thanks to this new development, it is shown that a more accurate estimation of overvoltage situations, due to photovoltaic generation, is permitted.