A new optimized grey verhulst model and its application

Author

Song Ding ; Yao-guo Dang

Author_Institution

Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China

fYear

2014

fDate

5-8 Oct. 2014

Firstpage

1681

Lastpage

1686

Abstract

In order to improve the precision of grey forecasting model, an optimized grey verhulst model based on grey prediction modeling mechanism is proposed in this paper. At first, the traditional grey verhulst model is given and an inherent error is found for this model. Then, a new method is used to construct the optimized grey derivative. Furthermore, auxiliary parameters are proposed, and original parameters can be restored by equations which meet the property of unbiasedness. In the last section, the new model is used to check the property of unbiasedness and forecast the development cost of Y125. This application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model.

Keywords

forecasting theory; grey systems; optimisation; Y125 development cost; auxiliary parameters; grey forecasting model; grey prediction modeling mechanism; optimized grey derivative; optimized grey verhulst model; Data models; Differential equations; Forecasting; Load modeling; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Time factors; auxiliary parameters; grey derivative; grey verhulst model; unbiasedness;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC), 2014 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

San Diego, CA

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/SMC.2014.6974158

Filename

6974158