Title :
Decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks
Author :
Tamura, Hiroyuki ; Yamamoto, Kouji ; Akazawa, Katsuhiro ; Taji, Kouichi
Author_Institution :
Osaka Univ., Japan
Abstract :
This paper aims at developing a methodology of decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks arising with low probability for which the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) is inadequate. It is shown that the value function under risk is a useful model for evaluating public risks of extreme events that influence numerous people enormously or the environment badly with low probability
Keywords :
decision theory; disasters; probability; risk management; decision analysis; natural disaster risks; probability; public risks; utility theory; value function; Buildings; Costs; Decision making; Earthquakes; Entropy; Fires; Fluctuations; Insurance; Risk analysis; Utility theory;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 2000 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nashville, TN
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-6583-6
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.2000.885051
