Informing and calibrating a multiresolution exploratory analysis model with high resolution simulation: the interdiction problem as a case history

Exploratory analysis uses a low-resolution model for broad survey work. High-resolution simulation can sometimes be used to inform development and calibration of such a model. The paper is a case history of such an effort. The problem at issue was characterizing the effectiveness, in interdicting an invading army, of long-range precision fires. After observing puzzling results from high-resolution simulation, we developed a multiresolution personal computer model called PEM to explain the phenomena analytically. We then studied the simulation data in depth to assess, adjust, and calibrate PEM, while at the same time discovering and accounting for various shortcomings or subtleties of the high-resolution simulation and data. The resulting PEM model clarified results and allowed us to explore a wide range of additional circumstances. It credibly predicted changes in effectiveness over two orders of magnitude, depending on situational factors involving C4ISR, maneuver patterns, missile and weapon characteristics, and type of terrain. The insights gained appear valid and a simplified version of PEM could be used for scaling adjustments in comprehensive theater-level models