Forecasting local region data with fuzzy time series

This study investigates the forecasting scheme of local region data. In view of the model of Song and Chissom (1993), we find it is robust for large amounts of data. After implementation for local region data, in this study, we find it is not so accurate as expected. Hence, the proposed scheme is tried. This scheme can make the forecasting more accurate. To illustrate the effect of this proposed scheme, the forecasting enrollments of Tainan, a small city in Taiwan, are carried out. It is found that the root mean square error of the forecasting enrollments can be improved from 443.44 for the Song-Chissom method to 45.69 for the proposed model