Title :
Forecasting local region data with fuzzy time series
Author :
Tsai, Chao-Chih ; Wu, Shun-Jyh
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Math. Educ., Nat. Tainan Teachers Coll., Tainan, Taiwan
Abstract :
This study investigates the forecasting scheme of local region data. In view of the model of Song and Chissom (1993), we find it is robust for large amounts of data. After implementation for local region data, in this study, we find it is not so accurate as expected. Hence, the proposed scheme is tried. This scheme can make the forecasting more accurate. To illustrate the effect of this proposed scheme, the forecasting enrollments of Tainan, a small city in Taiwan, are carried out. It is found that the root mean square error of the forecasting enrollments can be improved from 443.44 for the Song-Chissom method to 45.69 for the proposed model
Keywords :
forecasting theory; fuzzy set theory; time series; Tainan; Taiwan; forecasting enrollments; forecasting scheme; fuzzy time series; local region data forecasting; root mean square error; Chaos; Cities and towns; Educational institutions; Fuzzy set theory; Fuzzy sets; Mathematics; Predictive models; Robustness; Root mean square; Time series analysis;
Conference_Titel :
Industrial Electronics, 2001. Proceedings. ISIE 2001. IEEE International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Pusan
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-7090-2
DOI :
10.1109/ISIE.2001.931768
