Pool forecasts for the spot and forward markets for a trader with a variable customer base and decentralised grid input

The deregulation of the German energy market has led to a change in the energy economy. The right for all customers to choose their supplier, the foundation of independent trading companies, restructuring among the energy suppliers, new criteria for nondiscriminatory grid access, grid usage and the supply and billing of electrical energy has changed the German and European electricity markets for good. The pressure of competition on generators and suppliers is forcing new approaches to be developed concerning the forecasting of their customers energy demands. As a result of the expansion in electricity trading, the short-term and medium-term timespans (from next-day up to one year), have gained immensely in importance. A load-timetabling system, updated daily and including various subsystem layers, helps a trader with the ordering and billing of energy quantities and electrical power levels. Thus, there are high demands on the precision of the load-forecasting systems used for the above-mentioned time periods. This makes it necessary to characterise the elements affecting a forecast. This paper describes the development of a methodical process by which to obtain such a characterisation