Inferring Epidemiological Control Strategies from Complex Network Models of Disease Propagation

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) exhibits several interesting transmission characteristics: spread within specific, but disjoint, geographical regions; and, so-called super-spreader events (SSE). We describe a complex network model which is capable of reproducing these features and apply it to the SARS transmission data from Hong Kong during 2003. We find that the observed data is typical of the models, and that the models are capable of a wide range of behaviours. However, we conclude that transmission within hospitals was a crucial factor for the severity of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong. Moderately restrictive control practices in the early stages of an outbreak would be sufficient to contain infection and limit contagion