Conceptual Design Using Executable Architectures for a Manned Mission to Mars

Solar radiation events present a significant threat to future manned missions to Mars. However, little architectural analysis has been documented on how to best protect these interplanetary manned missions. With renewed interest in manned missions to Mars, there is a clear need to develop and analyze radiation protection architectures. The Mars scenario was selected due to its relatively high likelihood, the robust body of background data available, and the adaptability of the analytic methods, concepts, and trade spaces to other planetary missions. An executable model was developed to assess the cost and effectiveness of 14 candidate solar warning architectures. Candidates were evaluated and compared based upon two performance metrics: warning time and solar coverage. The cost of each architecture was assessed by estimating the total dry mass of all required components. Relation of the performance metric of each architecture to its estimated cost enabled construction of a Pareto frontier of design options using multiattribute utility theory to combine performance metrics into an overall “best value” solution. This analysis resulted in a manned Mars spacecraft with onboard sensing/processing.