Time series forecasting of medicare fund expenditures based on historical data—Taking Dalian as an example

With the development of medical and health services, as well as the advance of treatment technology, there are more health demands in our society. The rapid growth of the absolute value of medicare fund expenditures has put lots of pressures on countries´ national health care system. However, the medical insurance fund is the direct key to the health care system. The increases of fund expenditures may cause a relatively shortage of fund and put pressures on the sustainable health care development. To respond to these issues, this paper analyzes the impact of medicare indicators on the medicare fund expenditures, and forecasts the monthly expenditure of medicare fund based on the method of time series forecasting, based on the historical data of medicare fund in the recent 5 years of Dalian, in order to prepare for policy adjustments and early warning. Eventually, it shows that medicare fund balances exist significant mean difference between the group of different medicare indicators. And forecasting error is 6.72%, which meets the actual demand.