Time-Varying Stochastic Assessment of Conservation Voltage Reduction Based on Load Modeling

This paper presents a time-varying stochastic technique to assess conservation voltage reduction (CVR) effects based on load modeling. A time-varying exponential load model is developed to represent voltage dependences of loads. The recursive least square (RLS) method is applied to identify model parameters in a recursive way. CVR factors can be calculated using the identified model parameters. The time-varying stochastic model for CVR effects can then be constructed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The proposed CVR assessment method is applied to one-year measurement data from a utility company. The calculated CVR factors are verified by a Euclidian distance-based comparison method. Stochastic models of CVR effects in each time window are constructed. Compared with previous efforts on assessing CVR effects, the proposed method does not require control groups or assumptions of linear relationships between the load and its impact factors. The probabilistic nature of CVR effects is also fully considered.