Patient-specific models from inter-patient biological models and clinical records

One of the main goals of systems biology models in a health-care context is to individualise models in order to compute patient-specific predictions for the time evolution of species (e.g., hormones) concentrations. In this paper we present a statistical model checking based approach that, given an inter-patient model and a few clinical measurements, computes a value for the model parameter vector (model individualisation) that, with high confidence, is a global minimum for the function evaluating the mismatch between the model predictions and the available measurements. We evaluate effectiveness of the proposed approach by presenting experimental results on using the GynCycle model (describing the feedback mechanisms regulating a number of reproductive hormones) to compute patient-specific predictions for the time evolution of blood concentrations of E2 (Estradiol), P4 (Progesterone), FSH (Follicle-Stimulating Hormone) and LH (Luteinizing Hormone) after a certain number of clinical measurements.