Uncertainty analysis of wind power prediction based on weather conditions diagnosis

Based on wind power resource-dependent characteristics, wind power interval prediction and meteorology constraints are analysed. In the aspects of atmospheric surface layer wind direction, vertical wind shear, such as local weather analysis and diagnosis index to characterize the status of the prediction error probability states under different weather conditions to assess the distribution, combined with quantile regression theory, taking into account the weather conditions affecting wind power fluctuation of power prediction method. Numerical example is part of a large wind farm in East adopted nearly one year of data, based on a typical quantile regression analysis to compare the proposed method to verify the validity of the proposed method in practical applications.