UK´s electricity from wind analyses: When the wind was not blowing in 2013 and what will happen in 2020

The paper offers analysis of the UK´s electricity projections for the 2020 electricity generation mix that have been put forward by various stakeholders: the National Grid´s UK Future Energy Scenarios 2013, Ofgem´s Electricity Capacity Assessment Report 2013, and Parsons Brinckerhoff´s own practical assessment of planned and consented power plants. The data is presented in a unique manner using the Capacity Energy (CapEn) Staircase. Electricity energy data is analysed for 2013 and projections for 2020 are discussed. A capacity gap that may appear is discussed and ways to bridge it, while minimising carbon emissions, are suggested. The authors consider that because wind generation cannot be relied on for providing significant dependable capacity and while unabated coal is due to be shut down before 2020, the gap may need to be plugged by new and efficient gas plant.