Title :
The study of methods of grouping electricity users for the precise prediction of demands
Author :
Matsumoto, Izuru ; Abe, Ryo ; Tanaka, Kiyoshi
Author_Institution :
Grad. Sch. of Eng., Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract :
On the electricity markets, in many cases, users decide how much power they need before the day when they actually use. Therefore, precise prediction of demand load is important. In this study, the method of demand prediction is proposed by multivariate analysis using weather data, and date is also considered. However, because of the high volatility of demand loads, it is not efficient to predict demand of one user. Therefore, we propose three methods of grouping electricity users, grouping randomly, grouping by Euclid Distance and grouping by Discrete Fourier Transform. In conclusion, demand prediction about the group made by last method is done 9.2% lower by MAPE than that about the group made randomly.
Keywords :
demand side management; discrete Fourier transforms; power markets; regression analysis; Euclid distance; MAPE; demand load prediction; discrete Fourier transform; electricity markets; electricity user grouping; multivariate analysis; Discrete Fourier Transform; Grouping; Prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Renewable Power Generation Conference (RPG 2014), 3rd
Conference_Location :
Naples
DOI :
10.1049/cp.2014.0920