Power system probabilistic production simulation based on equivalent interval frequency distribution including wind farms

In probabilistic production simulation, the assessment of dynamic costs associated with thermal plant start-up, reserve and peak regulation is usually evaluated by the frequency and duration method (FD). This method employs the load frequency curve which only describes certain of load fluctuation frequency information, resulting in the factor that the dynamic costs of start-up and shut-down in short time interval is included into the whole production costing assessment as well. A certain deviation is existed in the result. With the increasing penetration of non-dispatchable technologies, such as the wind power, more impact will be produced by the growing fluctuation of net load. In order to reflect more chronological load characteristics, the load frequency curve is extended to the interval frequency distribution and interval frequency distribution series in this paper, which involves both the frequency information and timing distribution of load fluctuation. Based on the equivalent interval frequency distribution series (EIFDs), a new probabilistic production costing algorithm was proposed to get a more reasonable assessment of dynamic costs. The case studies were carried out on an EPRI-36 unit system, and results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.