Operational reliability evaluation of power system with wind farm based on probabilistic load flow

Considering the fact that the operating condition of power system with wind farm is more complicated and variable, this paper uses probabilistic load flow (PLF)method and non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation to analyze the operational reliability. Firstly, combining the historical statistical data of system components´ outage rate and the operating characteristics of current system statement, this paper uses bus voltage and branch power flow as real-time operating variables to develop the real-time outage model for conventional generators and lines. As for the output of wind power´s forecast, Beta distribution can well match the conditional probability of actual output of wind power with a given predictive value within short period. And then, the load-cutting model is improved by introducing bus real-time importance. Finally, the operational reliability of power system with wind farm is evaluated by calculating expected demand not supplied(EDNS)and the probability of system low voltage(PSLV) as indexes. The effectiveness of the models and method presented in this paper is tested by the modified IEEE-RTS79 system.