Total supply capability for city distribution systems based on the probability load growth

This study, considering the probability load growth and load distribution imbalance, proposes a mathematical model for city total supply capability (CTSC). First, it introduces the concepts to CTSC and available load supply capability (ALSC); second, using multi-scenario method to analyze the future load, so it could get some possible load scenarios; then the model is translated into linear constrained optimization method to calculate CTSC under each scenario. So it could get CTSC with the scenarios´ probability, which is most suitable one for the probability load growth and the load distribution; finally, the results from a real distribution system testify the effectiveness of the proposed model.