Impacts of wind turbine farm obscurations on aircraft escort probability of success

The presence of large wind turbine farms has been shown to significantly degrade radar tracking of aircraft. The loss in localized radar coverage could pose issues in airspace management, especially within Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFR) areas. As wind turbine development expands, there is an increasing potential that the degraded radar tracking surveillance could negatively impact safety operations. Two analytical approaches are considered to compute the probability of successfully intercepting and escorting an unauthorized aircraft away from TFR controlled areas near wind turbines. New models, which were specifically designed to address wind turbine interference with ground-based radars, are utilized to simulate both the losses in radar tracking continuity from wind turbine obscuration and the resulting impact this has on airspace safety operations. Probability distributions are used to model intercept / escort processes including interceptor take-off times. A probability of success expected value is computed for candidate routes over a range of aircraft velocities. The intercept sequences are modeled under various conditions (no turbines, existing turbines, and expected future turbine development) to measure the contrast in probability of success lost as a direct result of turbines. Both Monte Carlo and convolutional “Direct Probability” approaches are considered.