A method of multi-surface evidence fusion slope stability analysis based on random set

The traditional methods of slope stability analysis are using cohesion and inner friction angle and other parameters to calculate the safety factor of stability. One of the most representative is the Sweden arc method which is most widely used in engineering. The problem lies in that the parameters being fixed value have not considered the existence of uncertainties of soil character. Different choice of the soil parameters often lead to different safety factor. The results tend to be more conservative, and there is no method to consider the comprehensive effect of multiple landslide. Based on the theory of random set and theory of evidence, as well as the Swedish arc method this paper gives a method of multi-surface evidence fusion slope stability analysis based on random set. First, we use two random sets to represent two uncertain parameters of the slope based on random set theory. By Extension Principles five sliding surface are mapped to five output random sets. Then use the Dempster combination rule to fuse five output random sets to get a comprehensive output. Following this transform it into pignistic cumulative distribution by TBM method to assess the stability of slope. Finally, we using the simulation comparing single surface results with multi-surface result, verifies the validity of the method.