Monitoring Cumulative Long-Term Vegetation Changes Over the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

This study uses two remotely sensed vegetation indices to investigate cumulative long-term changes of undisturbed vegetation in the Athabasca Oil Sands region of Alberta, Canada, between 1984 and 2012. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI) were derived from both Landsat and MODIS time series, for comparative purposes and to increase confidence in detected trends. Trend analysis of undisturbed forest areas, i.e., area without abrupt changes revealed a consistent decrease in vegetation condition, quantified by an average reduction of 18.6% (SD=5.02% ) in NDVI and of 31.0% (SD=10.06%) in NDWI, over the 28-year period. The study does not conclusively associate the trends with any single stressor, but seeks to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of cumulative effects resulting from a variety of natural and anthropogenic causes. Examination of the temporal pattern of trends showed an increase in the occurrence of decreasing trends in the last 10 years. The decreasing trends were more frequent closer to mining developments for both the Landsat and MODIS time series. Climate change was not considered a major causal factor as climate normalized trends had little effect on the results. The trend analysis undertaken can be used to enhance in situ monitoring programs for site selection of additional monitoring facilities particularly regarding potential cumulative effects, provide an indication of likely future short-term changes in the region, and to aid in the development of mitigation measures.