Home energy management benefits evaluation through fuzzy logic consumptions simulator

In recent years the European Union and, moreover, Italy has seen a rapid growth in the photovoltaic (PV) sector, following the introduction of the feed in tariff (FIT) scheme known as Conto Energia. In July 2013 the Italian government definitively cut FITs, leaving only tax benefits and a revised net metering scheme (known as "Scambio sul Posto") for new PV installations. In this scenario, the design of a new PV plant ensuring savings on electricity bills is strongly related to household electricity consumption patterns. This paper presents a high-resolution model of domestic electricity use based on Fuzzy Logic Inference System. Using as inputs patterns of active occupancy and typical domestic habits, the fuzzy model give as output the likelihood to start each appliance within the next minute. The focus of this work is the use of this novel fuzzy model to correctly size a residential photovoltaic plant and evaluate the economic benefits of energy management actions in a case study. A cost benefits analysis is presented to quantify its effectiveness in the new net metering Italian scenario.