The Northwest Passage: A Simulation

Shipping from Yokohama to New York and St. Johns, Newfoundland is simulated by VSLAM for two routes: the Panama Canal, using fast and slow bluewater ships, and the Northwest Passage, using identically sized fast and slow Canadian Arctic Class (CAC) 3 ships. Each route is broken into a series of logical legs, and environmental conditions and wait times are assigned. Ice conditions are modeled from historical records. Average speed through the Northwest Passage shows little seasonal variation. Round trips per year are higher through the Northwest Passage for all cases in this study. The required freight rate (RFR) to recover all costs including capital recovery, is calculated for fast ships. RFR is lower for fast ships from St. Johns to Yokohama using the Northwest Passage, and higher for fast ships from New York to Yokohama. Possible future thinning of Arctic ice may improve the economics of the Northwest Passage