Modeling and simulations of collective violent events based on criminal risk assessment model

This paper presents a new criminal risk assessment model to study the criminal behavior choice of individuals in crowd context. By abstracting individual´s grievance, risk level and other important factors, we represent the events´ growing and spreading in virtual world. Considerable simulations indicate that the appearance of police could effectively prevent “windows-breaking effect” spreading in events and the proportion of hard-core and hangers-on plays an important role in the growing and spreading of events. The results provide meaningful theoretical basis for public security organs to deal with the collective violent events.