Epidemics Alert & Response Framework and Technology Based on Spreading Dynamics Simulation

There have been many research works on epidemic spreading using mathematical or simulation methods. However, to make it practical as a decision support tool for the policy maker, it needs to be combined with business operation of epidemic control. Thus, an alert and response framework covering outbreak detection, policy analysis, and policy execution is proposed in this work. Key technologies for such a framework at the modeling, analysis, and data collection aspects are discussed. Sensitivity analysis is proposed for model verification and confidence analysis. Critical point identification is another important topic for control policy making by network topology analysis. The importance and feasibility of these technologies are illustrated by the experiment on Beijing SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) data in 2003