Method towards a scenario-Based planning of technology exploitation

In today´s business environment, market turbulences, changing resources or maturing technologies can dramatically influence technology exploitation. Nevertheless, current methods supporting exploitation decisions focus on static considerations neglecting the influence of environmental discontinuity. Because of complexity and risk embedded in exploitation decisions, technology-oriented companies furthermore rarely think of externally commercializing their technologies. So do companies frequently ignore the benefits of systematically exploiting technologies over their whole lifecycle. In the paper we introduce a scenario-based method for the exploitation of technologies considering the whole technology lifecycle. The method offers the opportunity to evaluate different combinations of technology exploitation options (such as licensing, joint venture etc.). Thereby, the description of environmental factors influencing commercialization strategies over time is a key element. Emphasize is put on the integration of dynamics and the multitude of expected interactions between the variables. Thus, the various expected interactions between influential variables of the exploiting entity, the market and the external environment on the benefit of different commercialization strategies are taken into account using Scenario Technique and a System Dynamics approach. The presented method of this on-going research can assist companies in determining the pathway to commercialize technologies in order to maximize the benefit over the complete lifetime.